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The global fertilizer use could increase over the 200.5 million tonnes in 2018, 25 percent more than that recorded in 2008.
El consumo mundial de fertilizantes crecerá un 1,8% anual hasta 2018, según un nuevo informe de la FAO Tendencias y perspectivas mundiales de los fertilizantes para 2018. Al mismo tiempo, “the overall production capacity of fertilizers, intermediates and raw materials continue to rise”According to the study.
As the potential for excess fertilizer use, the global potential balance-a technical term that measures the amount actually available on demand will grow for nitrogen, phosphate and potassium, the three main soil fertilizer.
The global use of nitrogen, with the difference between the fertilizer-staple, is expected to increase 1.4 percent annually through 2018, while the use of phosphate will increase 2.2 percent and 2.6 percent potassium. In comparison, it is expected that the supply of these three important elements grow by 3.7, 2.7 and 4.2 percent per year, respectively, according to the FAO report.
The study makes no predictions about future prices, but indicates that fertilizer prices, after rising in 2011, were generally lower in mid-2014 than in 2010.
Nitrogen consumption grows
It is expected that the demand for nitrogen fertilizers to grow faster in sub-Saharan Africa, 4.6 percent. However, as the current usage is low, the region will need in 2018 only 340,000 additional tons of nitrogen compared to 2014, representing less than 5 percent of global growth forecast.
In East and South Asia, which together account for 60 percent of all fertilizer use nitrogenados-, growth in the next four years will be moderate, but represent additional 3.3 million tons in terms of volume.
According to FAO projections, farmers in North America will use about 300 000 additional tons of nitrogen fertilizers in 2018, representing an annual growth of 0.5 percent, while farmers in Western Europe is expected to reduce use 50,000 tons ,.
New options for healthy soils
Fertilizer application is a way of substituting the nitrogen removed from the soil with the crop. While the extensive use of nitrogen may involve wastage and damage water resources, the huge increase in the use of fertilizers helped drive a rapid expansion of agricultural productivity in the post-war period.
On the one hand, excessive use of fertilizers in some places has led to contamination of the soil as nitrogen deposition and in some water systems damaged cases. Furthermore, in most of sub-Saharan Africa under-utilization of fertilizers means that the nutrients are removed from the soil with crops are not replaced, leading to land degradation and declining yields.
The FAO model to Save to grow and the first principle of “Build a common vision for sustainable food and agriculture” show ways to maintain or restore soil health while less dependent on inputs to sustainably increase the productivity of crops, says Clayton Campanhola, director of the Division of Plant Production and Protection Division.
Crop rotation and the use of fertilizer and manure, adapted to local conditions, can also restore nitrogen to the soil. Some plants-particularly legumes such as soybean, have microorganisms in their root systems that capture nitrogen from the air and made available to the plants.
FAO has also developed methods to monitor crop conditions in real time, allowing decisions about the amount of fertilizer needed. Methods for applying fertilizers precisely, rather than on board, also reduce waste and damage caused by the runoff of nitrogen.
2015 has been designated the International Year of Soils, during which FAO is working with its partners to engage the public about the need to sustainably manage this important resource for food production.
Map of the trends of fertilizers
Fertilizer use will vary widely by geographic region in the coming years, with strong demand for nitrogen and potassium in sub-Saharan Africa, albeit from low levels of current use.
Asia as a whole will remain the largest consumer of fertilizers in the world and relies on imports of the three main nutrients. Even if Western Asia continues to provide substantial surpluses of nitrogen, phosphate and potassium.
Europe as a whole also have a surplus of all three nutrients due to large positive balances in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. It is expected that the use of fertilizers through 2018 remain stable in Western Europe, while it will grow by 3.6 percent per year in the eastern subregion.
Latin America and the Caribbean depend on imports of the three nutrients during the forecast period during which it is expected that the use of fertilizers in the region to grow at a sustained annual rate of 3.3 percent, according to FAO.
Differences in nitrogen global demand will remain high between continents. In 2018, Africa will require 4.1 million tons, 15.7 million Europe, the Americas, Asia 23.5 million and 74.2 million tons.
Although it is expected that the total fertilizer use in sub-Saharan Africa to grow at an annual rate of 4.7 percent-the fastest in the world, this continent will remain a major exporter of nitrogen, providing 3.4 million additional tons for global balance.
SOURCE: Fao.org
