PERU fishing with guts to report…
The El Niño conditions appear to have formed and will likely continue during the winter, forecasters in Japan , Adding to signs that the event can dry parts of Asia is returning.
The surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean was higher than normal in almost all areas, in November, the Japan Meteorological Agency said through a statement on its website. The models suggest that there is a high probability that El Niño conditions will continue in winter. The last El Niño was 2009-2010.
The weather event can affect global agricultural markets as farmers contend with drought or excessive rain, while also curbing the incidence of hurricanes in the Atlantic. Forecasters in Australia and New Zealand warned last week the weather pattern may soon be back the week. Weather Niño-as has been seen in South America Even without an official declaration of the event, Morgan Stanley said in a report yesterday.
“The El Niño conditions seem to already have been formed based on the sea and weather conditions Summer”Said the agency based in Tokyo. “However, the convective activity near the International Date Line is loose and the characteristic effects of El Niño in the atmosphere have not appeared clearly.”
El Niño, que son causadas por el calentamiento periódico del Pacífico, se producen cada dos a siete años y están asociados con los años más cálidos que el promedio. Desde el último El Niño, el Pacífico ha sido o bien en su estado más frío, llamado La Niña, o neutral. El evento puede traer inviernos más suaves al norte de Estados Unidos, así como condiciones más secas en partes de Australia, Indonesia and Northeast Brazil .
Perspectives in Australia
Las temperaturas tropicales del Pacífico han superado los niveles de El Niño durante un mes y el Índice de Oscilación del Sur, lo que indica el desarrollo y la intensidad de los episodios de El Niño o La Niña, se ha mantenido en o cerca de los umbrales durante tres meses, sostuvo la Oficina de Meteorología de Australia. Los patrones son consistentes con un evento de débil desarrollo, New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research 's said.
“Independientemente de que El Niño se declara, sus efectos -como es probable,” He said Australia office in the biweekly updates, citing the effects already seen in the country as well as in Asia, South America and southern Africa . The office maintains at least 70 percent probability that an event will be held in the coming months.
Benches Water
Also manifest Morgan Stanley, the time in South America, including above normal rains have been Argentina and southern Brazil, typical of El Niño during much of the past month, while New Zealand is facing summer water restrictions in some regions as the pattern develops. An El Niño could bias risk estimates for soft commodities higher, Goldman said last April.
In the US, the milder winter temperatures across northern and colder readings in the south, with storms in California, all it shows that the climate is acting like El Niño was underway, said Matt Rogers Chairman of the Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland.
Furthermore, the Climate Prediction Center US He said that the chances of an El Niño that occur in the next three months have risen to 65 percent from 58 percent, citing rising surface temperatures in the Pacific in November. A corresponding change in the atmosphere did not follow, so the El Niño phenomenon could not be declared, the agency said.
While sea surface temperatures “alone could imply weak El Niño conditions, patterns of wind and rainfall anomalies generally do not clearly indicate a coupling of the atmosphere to the ocean”Said US meteorologist.
Por: Glenys Sim
Web Bloomberg.
