The Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization, Petteri Taalas, reported that the El Niño event, which occurs every four or five years and causes storms and floods, expected to weaken in the coming months and gradually disappear in the second quarter of 2016. our also enlightened members of the Interdepartmental Committee in charge of the National Study of El Niño, ENFEN, they said in their final statement in March 2016 that El Niño began its phase of decline in Peru, by the approach of a cold Kelvin wave April, which would contribute to the normalization of the oceanographic conditions in the Peruvian coast.,es

However, none of the two major institutions, has shown sufficient scientific evidence to conclude with this statement. The weakening of El Nino, will depend on the winds that blow from Australia cease (which is not given at all) and the trade winds coming from the south-east are strengthened (which not given yet). Wave cold Kelvin, could dards between 2 N and 2 S, but not between 5 and 8 S and between 5 and 8 N, as in this month could increase surface temperature anomalies Sea despite being in autumn. Nothing is said until the anomalously warm subsurface water pools observed off Peru and Colombia against, release their pent-up energy. If as they say, what sense then is the state of alert throughout the country ?.,es

There is no doubt that scientific advisers PERUPESQUERO, who are in constant exchange with Myke McPhaden (number 1 NOAA) and several scientists JAMSTEC are more successful in their forecasts, they claim that the final heating comes from the coast northern Peru with water above 27 ° C or temporarily cooled and heated pool will remain as foreign NOAA scientists predict, although some disagree location of this pool.

En la figura 1.1It is shown marked by a circle, the hot water pool in front of Paita 5 ° S. In the figure 1.2 1800 ms vs Colombia 5th N and figure 2.1It is shown, the pool that reaches to 8 ° S (vs. Pimentel) and Figure 2.2 the pool is shown compared to 8 ° N (off Central America). Eye, these pools may not be cooled by any cold Kelvin wave in these latitudes.

In these official findings, we incorporate the results of the models scientists Daque Chen, Mark Cane and Stephen members of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Zebiak, NOAA, who through images are predicting that El Niño will continue until November 2016 ( prognosis only gives up to 9 months), as shown in Figures 3.