During July 2014, the sub-surface temperatures, SST, continued above average in the eastern equatorial central and east-central Pacific (Fig. 1), the Sea Surface Temperature, SSTs remained close to the average, while

On the other hand, the heat content anomalies in the subsurface (averaged between 180-100ºW) decreased and are slightly below average (Fig. 3).

Over the past month, forecasting models have slightly delayed the onset of El Niño, with most models denoting the start during July-September, continuing until the beginning of 2015 (Fig. 6) event.

Then the probability of El Niño has decreased about 65% during the fall and early winter in the Northern Hemisphere (press CPC / IRI consensus forecast for the probability of each outcome).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, National Weather Service NOAA Management and its affiliates.

The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for September 4, 2014. To receive an e-mail when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are available, please send a message to: ncep.list.enso-

Photo: anomalies (° C) average temperature of the sea surface (SST, for its acronym in English) for the week centered on 30 July 2014. The anomalies are calculated using as a basis the weekly average reference periods 1981 -2010.

Enter this link to locate the figures Spanish Version – NOAA